Christmas group menu: cost the one you sell most before December eats your margin

HR from a thirty-person company asked you on the phone. And you gave a figure on the spot, because if you delay, they call the place next door.

That figure came from your head. Last year’s menu, a couple of euros more, and the feeling that groups always make money.

An accepted group quote is a closed price. If the company already said yes to €40, in December you charge €40 even if hake has gone up.

On what is already signed you can only change what goes on the plate: portion size, garnish, supplier and when you buy.

On what is still unsigned you can change everything, including price and drink terms.

That is why the moment is now. In November groups start booking seats, and by December there is nothing left to negotiate.

A lot. Groups of six or more were 31% of December 2025 bookings on TheFork, 47% more than the average for the rest of the year.

The average group was ten people, with an average ticket of €28 on that platform. On the weekend of 12–14 December, groups were half of all bookings.

On price, 42.1% of customers choose €30–45 menus and 31.6% choose €45–55, according to Hostelería de España’s campaign analysis.

And ingredients do not wait. Between late November and Christmas Eve 2025, the 16 holiday products tracked by OCU rose 10.3% on average.

Goose barnacles, 56%. Clams, 43%. Capon, 26%. Hake, 20%. Sea bream, 17%.

That 10.3% does not include what had already risen since October, which is exactly when you set the price.

Do not cost all four menus. Take the one with the most accepted quotes or orders.

The trap is costing only the main. A group menu is aperitif, shared starters, main, dessert, bread, nougat, coffee, digestif and the toast cava.

The small items, multiplied by thirty, stop being small.

This week: list every element of that menu with the portion that actually leaves the kitchen, not what the card says. Ask how much Iberian ham the board for ten carries.

If you have never done one, here is how to cost a dish, ingredient by ingredient.

This is where almost everyone breaks. You use the October delivery note, get a pretty cost and relax.

The cost that matters is the week you cook, not the day you quote.

On every sensitive ingredient put the price you expect to pay in mid-December. For fish, seafood, lamb and poultry, raise them at least by what OCU measured last year.

This week: call your fish and meat suppliers and ask if they will lock a price for your group dates. What freezes well, like prawns or seafood for sauces, buy now.

On quotes that are not yet signed, consider swapping the most volatile fish for another.

Drink is where you fool yourself most, because it is never measured. And at a company dinner people drink, and not a little.

An open bar is not a price: it is an open tab with a closing time you set.

Do the maths per pour, not per bottle. Our estimate with usual purchase prices for a mid-range gin and hospitality soft drink: take it as an order of magnitude.

If you charge €15 for the open bar, you keep €13.64 ex-VAT. With two hours, you cover it. With three hours and no limit, you lose money on every guest.

This week: on every unsigned quote, set a bar closing time, named brands and a pour measure on the bottle. The extra waiter is inside the price, not on top.

Example built by us with indicative wholesale prices for a typical menu; it does not belong to any client.

A €40 menu including VAT, with wine, water, cava and coffee. Ex-VAT that is €36.36 per person.

Full food comes to €12.60 and included drinks to €2.60. In December, starters and main rise by about 12%.

You thought you made €25.46 per cover. You make €20.06. That is €5.40 less per person, and a food cost of 45%.

At a dinner for thirty, €162 that was not in your plan. Across twelve dinners like that, €1,944. And that is before the open bar adds or subtracts.

Knowing the cost does not give back what you already signed: it tells you how much you will really make.

It also does not measure extra staff or that a group of thirty occupies the dining room all night with no second sitting. That goes into the next quote’s price, not the dish.

And it does not cover the no-show group. Without a deposit, a cancelled group is December-priced product that nobody pays for.

OCU measures from late November and in markets and supermarket prices, not wholesale. What rises from October to December at your supplier is published by nobody.

TheFork’s 31% is platform bookings, not sector revenue. What share of your December till is groups is something only you know.

There is no neutral open-bar consumption figure in Spain. Your best source is last year’s empty bottles.

If you do not know what the menu you sell most really costs and want to fix it this week, Tipi is the way: you dictate it by voice and it calculates with the prices from your own delivery notes.

One. The one you sell most. Before the first group walks in.